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Updated Wager Wiki

Page history last edited by peterga 3 months, 4 weeks ago

Current and Recent Wagers

Winner	Stakes	Wager Date	Wager
	Stakes: If Pete wins, Jun-Dai will send him a bottle of whisk(e)y. If Jun-Dai wins, Pete will hand deliver him a bottle of whisk(e)y inn Montreal.	12/21/2023	Pete bets Jun-Dai that the SCOTUS will overturn the Colorado Supreme Court decision barring Trump from running for office, e.g. barring his inclusion on the 2024 CO primary ballot. (While Jun-Dai also believes it will be overturned, he is making a low probability wager against it for higher potential return.) A narrow ruling that leaves him off the ballot in CO, any broader ruling that takes him off ballots across the country, or a refusal to hear the case would all constitute a Jun-Dai win. A narrow ruling that puts him back on the ballot in CO but leaves the possibility of him being taken off of other ballots in other cases, as well as a broader ruling that kills all the cases of invoking section 3 of amendment 14 would constitute a Pete win.
Jun-Dai	Stakes = dinner and 2 drinks the next time we are in the same city and restaurants are open	4/10/2020	Pete bets Jun-Dai that the Seahawks will play a home game in September or October 2020 before at least 50,000 fans
	$25 Amazon card	12/3/2013	Pete bets Andrew R. that by 1/1/2024 amazon will be regularly delivering physical goods by drone in at least 25 cities. (winner gets his choice of items from amazon up to $25, delivered by drone if possible.)
	Lunch	12/31/17	Pete bets Tim C. that by December 31 2029 one of the world's top ten car manufacturers in 2015 (Volkswagen, Toyota, Daimler, GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler, Honda, Nissan, BMW, SAIC) will stop manufacturing cars powered by internal combustion engines. (Going out of business will not count.)
Rob	Loser must research and take the winner to a likely-to-be really good steak house they've not heard of next time they're in the same town	12/9/19	Rob M. bets Jun-Dai that there will be no witnesses called in any trial of the impeachment charges being drafted by the Congress in December 2019
Jun-Dai	Bottle of wine	Jan 2021	Lorin bets Jun-Dai that Trump will pardon himself
Lorin	Stakes TBD on the jail time	1/14/21	Jun-Dai bets Lorin that Donald Trump will serve time in jail by the end of 2022.
	$200	June 2021	Jun-Dai bets Pete that on June 2, 2026, the S&P 500 Total Return (e.g. ^SP500TR), adjusted for inflation, will be lower than it was on June 2, 2021. ($8,767.52)
Pete	Lunch	9/14/21	ChuckE bets Pete that Trump will not run for president in 2024, and remain in beyond the decision in the Iowa caucus.
	One cocktail when in the winner's city	1/19/22	Pete bets Lorin and Jun-Dai that if the GOP gains control of Congress, within the next 4 years they will change the filibuster rules to pass at least one piece of legislation.

Other Predictions

Predictor	Date	Prediction
Andrew R.	3/26/2014	King.com will be bankrupt in 7 years.

Expedia Wager Wiki Archive

Winner(s)	Stakes	Date	Settled?	Wager Participants and Description
Chad	1 beer	1/10/2011		Pete A. and Derek Z. bet Chad that Oregon will defeat Auburn
–	Refill Fridge	1/20/2011		Derek bets Pete that Verizon will sell >15m iphones in the first year available (released 2/10/2011)
–	Refill Fridge	2 March 2011		Jun-Dai bets Rob that the iPad 2 OS will have a way for the user to disable video mirroring (upon release)
Aman	Refill Fridge	3/30/2011		Pete bets Aman that Sri Lanka will defeat India in the 2011 Cricket World Cup
Magesh	Refill Snack Bins	3/30/2011		Michael N. bets Magesh that Sri Lanka will defeat India in the 2011 Cricket World Cup
Pete	12 pack and lunch. To be consumed separately.	12/22/2011		Pete bets Michael N. that Boise State will beat Arizona State by more than the 13.5 point spread in their bowl game 12/22 (FINAL BSU 56, ASU 24)
Pete	$5	1/22/2012		Neil bets Pete that Newt Gingrich will win the 2012 GOP nomination
Jun-Dai	Amazon item <$25	1/6/2011		Pete Bets Jun-Dai that Facebook will have a larger market cap than Google on 1/6/2016
Jun-Dai	Amazon item <$25	1/6/2011		Jun-Dai bets Pete that Apple will be the largest company in the world (in market cap) by 1/6/2016
Derek	Amazon item <$25	1/6/2011		Pete bets Derek Z. that Facebook revenues in 2016 will be greater than Google revenues.
Rob	Amazon item <$25	3/14/2012		Rob M. bets Pete A. that Apple will have double the market cap of any other company in the world by 1/6/2016
Rob	Karaoke*	3/14/2012		Pete bets Rob that Facebook will have greater search ad revenues than Google by 3/14/2018
Pete	Amazon item <$25	3/29/2012		Andrew R. bets Pete that active Facebook accounts will be <=70% of the current level by 3/29/2015
Pete	Amazon item <$25	4/20/2012		Andrew R. bets Pete that Texas will make the 2012 World Series
(Push - Dan mumbled something about no clear metrics ...)	Badge of Shame	12/31/2012		Aaron P. wagers Dan B that Apple’s worldwide share of mobile phone sales between May 1^st 2011 and Dec 31^st 2012 will not increase as measured by the best available data set selected by a mutually agreed 3^rd party ewe team member.
Pete	Two cocktails	5/7/2012		Rob M. bets Pete A. that the outage on this day was due to network issues between IIS and Tomcat
Andrew	1 beer	5/18/2012		Andrew R. bets Pete A. that FB will be down $.50 or more from the close Friday May 18 to close Monday May 21
Pete	1 beer	5/29/2012		Andrew R. bets Pete A. that FB will hit $10 or lower by Oct 29, 2012
Rob	No stakes	6/11/2012		Neil C. bets Rob M. that the entire keynote at the 2012 Apple WWDC will be about the new Mac Pros
Rob (Disputed by Neil, but all his arguments are crazy)	$25 amazon gift card	6/14/2012		Neil c. bets Rob that in fall, on the day iOS 6 launches, maps.apple.com will be a live map site like google maps, where any user can visit without an iPhone, execute address and place searches, zoom, scroll, and zoom around maps.
Pete (technically at least)	Orioles cap	10/2/2012		Neil bets Pete that the Orioles will win the 2012 AL East title.
Pete	Orioles cap or wear cap to Ultra	10/5/2012		Neil bets Pete that the Orioles will win the 2012 American League pennant. If Neil wins, Pete must buy him an Orioles cap. If Pete wins, on his next trip to Seattle, Neil must go for drinks at the Ultra Lounge in Bellevue wearing Pete's cap backwards.
	Double or nothing on $25 Amazon card	11/27/2012		Jun-Dai bets Pete that mingle.karmalab.net will be back up by 5pm on Wednesday 11/28. (Wager is nullified if it turns out that Pete was causing the outage.)
	$25 amazon gift card	11/28/2012		Jun-Dai bets Pete that Americans be able to travel mostly freely to Cuba before January 2017 ("mostly freely meaning that a normal citizen can get a visa and travel there without providing special reasons e.g., educational, journalistic")
Pete	Two cocktails	12/20/2012		Pete bets Rob that the Seahawks will defeat the 49ners on Sunday 12/23.
Rob & Jun-Dai	$1	1/7/2013		Neil bets Jun-Dai and Rob each $1 that you can buy a 27" 5120x2880 iMac by the last day of 2013.
Lorin	One top-shelf martini	6/6/2013		Lorin bets Neil that a retina imac will not be announced at wwdc.
Lorin	One evening's beer tab	6/6/2013		Neil bets Lorin that a retina imac will be announced at wwdc.
Rob	$25 Amazon card	6/10/2013		rob bets jun-dai that there will be no standalone quadhd (or higher) displays announced by the end of the year.
Pete	3 cocktails (paid)	8/22/2013		Pete bets Rob that the Seahawks will beat the 49ners in their first regular season game (9/15/2013)
Rob	3 cocktails (paid)	8/22/2013		Pete bets Rob that the Seahawks will beat the 49ners in their second regular season game (12/8/2013)
Pete	One bottle Macallan 18, to be kept in the winner's office, for sharing with workmates and maximizing gloating (Paid with bottle of McCallan 21)	8/22/2013		Pete bets Rob that the Seahawks will go further in the 2013 NFL postseason than the 49ners. (Tie-breaker, margin of loss in final playoff game – or final regular season game if neither makes the playoffs)
	$25 Amazon card	12/3/2013		Pete bets Andrew R. that by 1/1/2024 amazon will be regularly delivering physical goods by drone in at least 25 cities. (winner gets his choice of items from amazon up to $25, delivered by drone if possible.)
	Lunch	3/26/2014		Andrew R. bets Pete A. that 24 hours after King Q2 earnings their stock will be at or below 50% of IPO price.
Pete	coffee shop drink (paid)	5/12/2014		Andrew R. bets Pete A. that the "existential cup" in the Bellevue HQ 15 lunchroom will still be there on Thursday May 15.
Pete	$1/$0.01	9/24/2014		Neil bets Pete A. at 100:1 that by 11/5/2014 Amazon will disclose a breach of their customer/payment data affecting at least 1 million customers. (Said breach cannot be performed by Neil Cronin.) That is, if such a breach is reported by this date, Pete owes Neil $1, and if it is not, Neil owes Pete $0.01.
Pete	Lunch	12/17/2014		Andrew R. bets Pete A. that Chris Christie will win the U.S. presidential election in 2016 (Andrew claims a perfect record predicting the POTUS since 1996).
Julie	Lunch at John Howie (unpaid)	1/22/2014		Julie M. bets Pete A. that the Patriots (with or without football inflation cheating) will defeat the Seahawks in the 2015 Super Bowl
N/A	3 beers	8/7/2015		Sean Robbins bets Jun-Dai 3 beers that if Donald Trump loses the republican nomination he will run as an Independent
Rob	$50 Amazon gift certificate	8/11/2015		Pete A. bets Rob M. that the 2016 Republican presidential nominee will be Bush, Walker or Rubio.
Pete	Dinner at winner's choice of restaurants (paid)	9/3/2015		Pete A. bets Rob M. that the Seahawks will win twice as many games as the 49ners in the 2015 regular season.
Pete	1 beer	9/3/2015		Mike Murphy bets Pete that Seahawks Defensive End Frank Clark will be arrested within the next 2 years. (If Clark is involved in high profile off-field incident where he is not actually arrested, the bet will be considered a push.)
Rob and Andrew	Lunch (Andrew paid, Rob still due)	1/20/2015		Rob M. and Andrew R. each bet Pete A. one lunch that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for POTUS in 2016
(Push)	$100 Double or nothing (No payment due)	2/23/2015		Rob M. bets Shawn A. $100 that Donald Trump will be elected President of the United States in 2016 Rob and Shawn agree on double or nothing for 2020 election.
Tim	Lunch (not expensive) (paid)	4/15/2016		Pete A. bets Tim C. that if the nominations go to Trump and Clinton, Hillary will win by >12% of the popular vote (No wager if either fails to get the nomination)
Dave D.	Lunch (paid)			Dave Drinkle bets Pete that Trump will be elected president.
Shawn	$5	1/24/2017		Shawn Adams bets Pete A. that the Patriots will beat the Falcons in the Super Bowl
	Lunch	12/31/2017		Pete bets Tim C. that by December 31 2029 one of the world's top ten car manufacturers in 2015 (Volkswagen, Toyota, Daimler, GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler, Honda, Nissan, BMW, SAIC) will stop manufacturing cars powered by internal combustion engines. (Going out of business will not count.)
Tim C	Lunch	5/31/2017	N	Pete bets Tim C. that in the event Donald Trump is impeached, he will resign before Congress reaches a decision on the charges.
Rob	$1/$10	8/25/2017		Neil C. bets $1 that the next iPhone will not have face recognition unlock. Rob M. pays $10 if it does not.
Lorin	$50 Amazon gift certificate	9/7/2017	Y	Andrew R. bets Lorin K. that Congress will pass a DACA replacement bill which will be signed into law by March 5, 2018
Lorin	Dinner	10/19/2017	N	Lorin K-B bets Jun-Dai B-K that Paul Manafort will be indicted before Trump leaves office.
Pete	Bottle of liquor, loser's choice, produced locally (within 50 miles) of loser's city, costing between $50 and $100.	1/8/2018		Jun-Dai bets Pete A. that the S&P 500 will drop below 2,000 at some point in 2018.
Lorin	First $150 of bar tab next time they are out.	3/19/2018	Y	Rob M. bets Lorin K. that by EOD 4/2 Rosenstein will be fired, Sessions will un-recuse himself, OR Trump announces that he has fired Mueller.
Leland	Lunch (Settled)	5/22/2018		Leland A. predicts that BEX will receive 50 "Right to be Forgotten" GDPR requests by June 25, 2018. Pete A. predicts 7 requests by that date. (Whoever is closer buys lunch – no special "Price is Right" rule nonsense.)
Pete	1 bottle Deadhead Chocolate Rum	10/11/2018		Rob wagers 1 deadhead dark chocolate rum in a monkey head that Democrats don’t win a majority in the house.
Kevin	Lunch	12/21/2018		Pete A. bets Kevin P. that the Huskies will defeat Ohio State in the 2019 Rose Bowl.
Jun-Dai	$50 bottle of whisky (PAID)	3/19/2019	N	Shawn Adams bets Jun-Dai that the UK will still be in the EU as of Jan 1, 2021. - $50 bottle of whisky
Rob	Loser must research and take the winner to a likely-to-be really good steak house they've not heard of next time they're in the same town	12/9/2019		Rob M. bets Jun-Dai that there will be no witnesses called in any trial of the impeachment charges being drafted by the Congress in December 2019
None	One quality beer or coffee when in the same city	2/4/20	Y	Jun-Dai bets Hutch that if Biden finishes the South Carolina primary >5% behind the Democratic winner in votes, that he will officially suspend/withdraw from the campaign with 24 hours of when a winner is declared by NYT. (If Biden wins or comes within 5%, the wager is off.)
Jun-Dai	$50 bottle of bourbon	10/2/2020		Jun-Dai bets Lorin that Trump goes to the hospital (in connection with his Covid-19 infection)
Pete	$100	Oct 2020	Y	Steve S. bets Pete that the GOP will take the House in the 2020 election
Pete	$100	10/3/20	Y	Steve S. bets Pete that the GOP will take the House in the 2020 election
Pete	$100	9/3/20	Y	Pete bets his cousin Dana that Biden will defeat Trump in the 2020 election
Pete	$100		Y	Perry D. bets both Pete A. and Rich H. that Trump will defeat Biden in the 2020 election

* Karaoke = Loser sings, winner chooses song, location, and invitees

* Badge of Shame = Loser wears sign/badge for a full day written by Winner. Date of shame chosen by Winner.

Outcome of widely anticipated murder trial for Pete A.

Neil	10 years, but out on parole in 6
Dan H.	Hung jury
Andrew	0 Days for murdering someone; 14 days for annoying the police by stupidly misleading them to think it was him.
Pete	Not Guilty!
Rob	Not guilty by reason of insanity

Stakes (proposed): Closest to actual outcome gets one cocktail from each of the other wagerers. Winner may optionally choose a cake with a crow bar baked in.

Trump Table

Prediction	Aaron	Andrew	Hutch	Jason	Jun-Dai	Lorin	Neil	Pete	Rob	Sandy	Shawn
Whistleblower identity known by end of 2019					65%			80%
Formally Impeached					80%			70%
Tried in Senate					65%			7%
Senate votes, acquitted					30%			20%
Impeached & Convicted					15%			2%
Resigns					30%			25%
Incapacitated					10%			5%
25th Amendment invoked					5%			5%
Finishes 1st Term					40%			95%
Re-elected to 2nd Term					10%			25%
Loses election, still president after Jan 2021					<1%			<1%
Still president after Jan 2025					<1%			<1%
Trump incites civil war or guerrilla warfare†								5%
Federal criminal charges within 1 year of leaving office*					25%			15%
NY State criminal charges within 1 year of leaving office*					60%			45%
Giuliani faces criminal charges within the next 2 years*					70%			60%

* related to Trump investigations, or clearly trigged by things uncovered as part of the investigations

It's not clear to me if a couple scattered incidents by loners or 2-3 people would count here?

Updated Wager Wiki

Current and Recent Wagers

Other Predictions

Expedia Wager Wiki Archive

Outcome of widely anticipated murder trial for Pete A.

Trump Table

Updated Wager Wiki

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